As Russia continues its conflict in Ukraine, its influence over its closest allies is dwindling, with China and Turkey taking full advantage of the situation.
Central Asia
These regions are home to countries with deep historical, cultural, and financial bonds to Russia, with many having once been part of the Soviet Union.
CSTO
Most of these nations are members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) – a group often compared to NATO, except under Russian President Vladimir Putin’s leadership.
Growing Chinese Influence
China’s influence is on the rise across Central Asian states, and Moscow is paying close attention.
China’s economic ties with Russia have been expanding for years, however, China recently surpassed Russia as Central Asia’s primary trading partner.
Changing Dynamics
Thomas Graham, co-founder of Yale University’s Russian, East European, and Eurasian studies program, told Business Insider that “dynamics are changing” in these regions.
Belt and Road
Graham highlighted China’s “Belt and Road” initiative, which seeks to establish global transport and telecoms links, and some routes now bypass Russia and connect to Europe through countries like Iran and Turkey.
New Pipelines
Now, China is constructing gas pipelines, so they are no longer dependent on Russia for energy.
This threatens Russia’s fossil fuel exports, a core component of its economy.
Challenging Dominance
While China financially supports Russia and avoids diplomatic isolation, its growing influence challenges its dominance in the region.
Turkey’s Expanding Presence
Turkey, although on a smaller scale than China, is also increasing its commercial ties with Central Asia, posing another challenge to Russia’s influence.
Growth
Graham also noted that “Turkish influence has grown in that part of the world,” but this growth comes at Russia’s expense.
Consequences for Russia
These efforts by China and Turkey have implications for Russia’s global standing, as it erodes Russia’s influence in regions where it once held great power.
Negative Consequences
Graham stated that China and Turkey “have negative consequences for Russia’s global standing. At least that’s the way they would think about this in the Kremlin.”
Ukraine Conflict Deepens the Problem
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022 and further isolated the nation politically and revealed vulnerabilities in its military strength.
CSTO Disillusionment
The CSTO, previously reliant on Russia’s military power, has experienced a shift as member states have slowly become disillusioned watching Moscow’s fail at overpowering a seemingly weaker adversary.
Taking Advantage
Ultimately, the conflict in Ukraine has allowed China and Turkey to expand their presence in the region with less resistance from Russia.
Armenia in Trouble
Notably, Armenia, a CSTO member, felt abandoned by Russia during its border dispute with Azerbaijan, as Russia failed to provide additional troops while preoccupied with Ukraine.
Erosion of Influence
Graham also said, “Russia’s operation in Ukraine is undermining, eroding its ability to maintain its influence across the former Soviet space,” and “You’re seeing the slow erosion of Russian influence.”
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